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             by Steve Keohane, AppraiserCentral.com

DANGER OF ZAIO Corporation

Zone Appraisal & Imaging Operations

they're building a better AVM - and/or a better pyramid scheme
 

I note that at 1324 today (30 OCT 08) its stock Zaio Corp. (Public, CVE:ZAO) was trading at: $.035 (3.5 cents)... Down from Ten cents yesterday...

Zaio Ceases Operations, Cites Market Conditions
By: PAUL JACKSON
October 30, 2008

And the real estate crunch continues to roll onward — but this time, it’s claimed the first collateral valuation provider, rather than a lender. Calgary-based Zaio Corp. said Thursday that it had “ceased operations” at Zaio Inc., its U.S.-based subsidiary that had been aggressively pushing its way into the real estate valuation and appraisal business in the States. The firm’s closing is immediate, and the company will begin selling off assets to fulfill payments to creditors, company officials said in a press statement.

All employees at the firm have lost their jobs, as well; the closure came as a shock to many, given Zaio’s presence at the recently-completed Mortgage Bankers Association annual conference in San Francisco.

The holding company, based in Canada, said it will look to “preserve capital and weather the current economic climate,” and that it would “redeploy its rollout strategy at a more favourable time in the economic cycle.”

Both James Kirchmeyer and Douglas Vincent have resigned from Zaio Corp.’s board of directors, as a result — Kirchmeyer re-assumed all of his prior assets sold to the firm when he joined the company from his own national appraisal management business, in a $3.2 million asset sale a few weeks ago that raised more than a few eyebrows at the time (including here at HW, which covered the transaction).

The surprise closure may likely leave more than a few appraisers — who paid the company to manage a so-called “appraisal zone” — in the lurch for the funds they paid to Zaio, as the company sells its U.S. assets to satisfy creditors. Officials at the Canadian-based parent company were not available for comment before this story was published. Finish reading the above article at:  Housingwire.com


See more info on this here:  http://appraisercom.com/forum/forum_entry.php?id=2524

30 OCT 08:
I'm not gloating. Although the ZAIO scheme was directly poised to try and take even more business away from hard working appraisers -- I actually feel very bad for all those people who lost their jobs and all those appraisers who paid $10k zone fees. My favorite appraisal software company (United Systems in Arizona) is caught up in this also. We need to pray for these poor people.   /s/ Steve Keohane at AppraiserCentral.com

MANY, MANY APPRAISERS GOT SERIOUSLY HURT BY THIS ZAIO THING:
San Diego appraiser, Kevin Allin, bought fourteen zones in September of 2006 at a discounted rate of $8,000 per zone. “Both my partners were in Hawaii when I went to the meeting, so I had to make the decision without them,” said Allin of his $112,000 investment in Zaio zones. For Allin, the size of the investment was outweighed by what he considers the value of the final product. “I feel like it’s a product that appraisers have some control over unlike AVM’s. I don’t know if they [other appraisers] will be out of business, but they will definitely miss out on not being able to offer it as a product,” Allin said. However, Allin, and other San Diego appraisers who invested in Zaio zones, are discovering that what they hope will someday be a lucrative final product is not yet readily available. 

Sara Schwarzentraub bought two zones that cover all of La Mesa, California in September of 2006.

Finish reading this this excellent article above by Terrie Petree: here
 

 

This company has its head office in Calgary, Canada.  Not long ago ZAIO purchased United Systems Software in Arizona & Appraisal.com - no doubt from big windfall funds gotten from ill-advised appraisers who sent them $10,000 area fees.  United Systems has been around a long time.  Old appraisers will remember their original DOS Hyperform software.  Their current appraiser software goes by the name of Appraisal Studio.

ZAIO's intent is to come up with a more accurate automated valuation database that includes photographs of the exterior of each residential property in the U.S.   They want appraisers themselves to provide these pictures, along with a written description of the home(s) and neighborhoods they're in; so that ZAIO can gain leverage with lenders by telling them an actual experienced and licensed appraiser provided this information. 


The reason?  This Canadian company wants to be on the forefront of providing Lenders with data they can use to do more Automated Valuations Modules (AVM). 

Any appraiser who provides data that will be used by these Automated Valuations is cutting their own throats, and the throats of their fellow appraisers.  They are virtually guaranteeing that they themselves will probably see their appraisal workload cut in half (or more) in the future.  Cooperating in any way with AVM data providers is like one step forward and two steps back.  This includes those appraisers who have been sending data via the Appraisal Institute's "appraisalport". 


Automated Valuations started out several a years ago with data collected from County Assessor and local Assessor records.  For a few years, Lenders went "wild" using these.  They were thrilled that companies selling this data to them only charged them $20-$30 and no live Appraiser was needed. This meant that Loan Officers could make the loan based on nobody ever seeing the exterior of the property.  Well, as they soon found out many of the loans made based on these Automated Valuations turned out to be rotten loans for several reasons.

Appraisers know that a home across the street from oceans and lakes are sometimes worth hundreds of thousands of dollars less than the waterfront home on the same street.  Homes surrounded by "crack homes" and "eye sore" homes, or in run down neighborhoods are not comparable to homes in good neighborhoods.  Appraisers can see this, but Automated Valuations can not.

County data, and Assessor data was never really that up to date data.  Much of this is 10 or more years behind.  If anyone relies solely on this data to do any sort of valuation, versus a live appraiser seeing the subject property and all comparables, they are living in "fantasy land" -- if they think they will come up with any value that represents the true market value.  County data and Assessor data may takes years to reflect that new two story, 800 square foot addition in the rear or side of a property.   With County data, forget finding inground pools, finished basements or new kitchens put in just last year, or even in the past several years

On October 14th, 2006 the CEO of ZAIO, Thomas J. Inserra posted at our Appraisal Talk Message Board the following; "Our written contracts that we sign with appraisers REQUIRE us to pay appraisers in cases when we sell valuation products to lenders. Thus, the contract is specifically designed to prevent ANY DATA or ANY valuation product from ever being sold UNLESS the appraiser is paid. That means we are purposely trying to keep the appraiser as the most important part of the valuation process."   As you can see, ZAIO's game plan seems to be to both sell analyzed appraiser data and software to lenders. 

At first they will pay appraiser's "chump money" for their data so that lender's can automatically populate 2055 driveby forms.  So soon appraiser's will see much less 2055 "driveby" work, as lender's will be doing them automatically, complete with analyzed (versus raw) appraiser data.  Then they will move into other appraisal types.

Any thinking person can see that a major cause of the subprime market meltdown, and the billions in losses lenders just took, was primarily do to lender use of these faulty "fuzzy logic" AVM modules, desktop loans and driveby appraisals.  My guess is that the rampant use of AVM's will go on hold for at least a while - which does not bode well for those who bought in to ZAIO's "scheme".

One appraiser got it right about ZAIO's scheme.  He said;

"I cannot see any reason why anyone would pay $8,000-10,000 to a large company for the privilege of taking photos of properties to enter into that large company’s data base. I’m shocked that some have fallen for it. The best case scenario is if their concept works, there will suddenly be dozens of competitors."

Place some Magazine ads and email appraisers.  Do the same thing ZAIO is doing for only $6,000 per zone....

 

Read More on this subject here:

 
Automated Valuation Models (AVMs)